Austerity budget? Tell him he's dreaming.

In the classic Australian film The Castle, apprentice mechanic Steve is addicted to the Trading Post newspaper, constantly seeking advice from his father Darryl on the various items on offer. In one of the most famous lines from the movie, Steve asks his father about the advertised price of jousting sticks. “Dad, $450?” Darryl replies: “For jousting sticks? Tell him he’s dreaming.” 

It’s not hard to imagine a Steve of today reading from the Trading Post (if the hard copy still existed): “Dad, austerity budget, what do you reckon?” And Darryl briefing pausing, cocking his head and replying “tell him he’s dreaming.”

Dreaming? Or perhaps more accurately having a nightmare, because despite the dire state of Tasmania’s budget, the truth is that serious remedial action isn’t going to be happening any time soon. Certainly not in Thursday’s “interim budget”, and it’s highly unlikely in next May’s “real” budget, too.

We all know the story. A deficit of $1.2 billion in the past financial year, next debt heading to $10 billion and beyond, and spending growing like topsy particularly in health and education (anyone seeing improved outcomes in either of those areas for all the money spent, just quietly?)

So bad is the financial situation that even the Labor Party are now able to brazenly claim that they did a better job managing finances than the Liberals. They were even were able to effectively block now ex-Treasurer Guy Barnett’s disastrous May budget, the first budget in a century not to pass the Tasmanian Parliament.

Never mind that Labor’s claim they left the state with no debt in 2014 airbrushes away that the only way they were able to do this was by raiding the $1.5 billion fund set aside for the superannuation payments of public servants.

Or, that despite this, if the Liberals under Will Hodgman and Peter Gutwein hadn’t taken remedial action after coming to office in 2014, the finances inherited from Labor were headed deep into the red.

Which get me to my point. The Liberals have fixed the budget before (four surplus budgets from 2015-16 – 2018-19, and the state remained net debt free until 2020-21), why can’t they do it again? 

The answer is two-fold – one entirely in the Government’s control, the other, completely outside of it.

First, the Stadium. Forget this nonsense that we can have it all. The voters like to hear it (perhaps they even like to think it), but everyone in their heart of hearts knows it to be false.

The politically “easiest” way to bring the budget back under control is to simply stop unbudgeted spending, something which is not actually that hard if everyone understands the Government is broke.

The problem is, when you’re spending $1.3 billion and counting on a new football stadium, it’s pretty hard to cry poor whenever someone comes to you with their hand out.

Hobart Clinic needs saving? Okay, here’s $2 million. Liberty Bell Bay needs some cash to stay afloat? Sure, how about a $20 million “loan” (good luck ever seeing that money again). Or the mother of them all – public servant wage claims. How about a three per cent increase? As Darryl Kerrigan might have said, tell him he’s dreaming. Give us five per cent per year and we’ll think about it.

And then there’s the Government’s own unbudgeted and unnecessary spending. Recently, the Attorney-General (he used to be the Treasurer) Guy Barnett announced a redress payment scheme for mothers subject to forced adoption practices. Well meaning, no doubt. The cost? Don’t you worry yourself about that little issue.

And don’t get me started on the brand new $150 million-plus youth detention being built at Pontville, which as far as I can tell is a like-for-like of the current Centre at Ashley. The only real difference being that this one has the added benefit of being within smelling range of a medicinal marijuana incineration facility, and hearing distance of a shooting range. Genius.

The second issue is the nature of the Parliament itself. The Liberals have 14 seats. Add in David O’Byrne who’s sworn to support them on Supply and it’s 15. A long way short of the 18 guaranteed votes required to pass a budget.

Does anyone really think that a budget with swingeing cuts across the board, including to essential services, has a hope in hell of passing the Parliament? You’d be mad to expect support from Labor for such drastic action, especially under the new union-friendly Willie regime which last week saw Labor marching shoulder to shoulder with striking public servants seeking that five percent per year pay rise. “Budget crisis, what budget crisis?”

The independents are no better. Take for example the putative leader of the pack, Mr Geroge, who campaigned on no stadium, no salmon, and fixing the budget. He’s certainly pressed hard on salmon, but when given the chance to stop the Stadium declined to seriously put it on the table in the post-election shenanigans. As for the budget crisis, well he says that’s all the fault of the Stadium (he didn’t stop), and by the way can I have some cash for the Hobart Clinic?

Mr George seems to have adopted the approach of  fellow independent Kristie Johnston, a lover of greyhounds who neglected to ask the Premier to ban greyhound racing, leaving him to take the initiative himself: don’t actually fix the problem, or you’ll have nothing to campaign on.

Sadly, this all means that despite his best efforts, all we are going to see on the budget front from new Treasurer Eric Abetz is tinkering around the edges, a bit of squeezing here and there on some perceived soft targets - but nothing serious. 

Oh, and taxes will of course eventually rise, because that’s what the one thing the left-leaning Parliament will demand and support.

As Darrly Kerrigan’s lawyer Dennis Denuto might have said in struggling for an explanation for it all: it’s the vibe of it.

• Brad Stansfield was Premier Will Hodgman’s Chief of Staff from 2014-2018. He is a partner at Font Public Relations and part-owner of this newspaper.