Tasmanian farmer confidence on the rise according to new Rabobank report

Rural confidence in Tasmania is starting to rebuild after plummeting last quarter, according to a new Rabobank report.

The latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey showed that confidence in Tasmania was still in the negative -with overall more Tasmanian respondents expecting business conditions to decline rather than to improve over the next 12 months – but that the net index edged up from -38 per cent to -20 per cent.

Rabobank area manager for Tasmania, Stuart Whatling, said Tasmanian farmers are feeling more upbeat heading into spring, as they balance hopes for rising commodity prices against ongoing concerns about input prices and government intervention.

“Nationally, concern about input costs has eased somewhat in states with large winter cropping areas, where farmers have already purchased and applied most of the fertiliser and agrochemicals,” Mr Whatling said. 

“In contrast, Tasmanian concerns about input costs increased this quarter as they are entering their most input-heavy period. 

“Fertiliser requirements heading into the spring period are top of mind here after a relatively dry winter, and two thirds of respondents have listed cost pressures as a concern as prices remain elevated with the Middle East conflict.

“However, despite ongoing supply chain disruptions, Tasmanian farmers are less worried about availability of key inputs than they are about the cost, and concern about sourcing fuel in particular eased this quarter.”

Mr Whatling said Tasmanian farmers also expressed heightened concern this quarter about the negative impact of domestic government intervention and policies on the farm sector, cited by 33 per cent of respondents (up from seven per cent in the last survey). 

“There has been growing concern around local land use and regulation in the state, in particularly where this may affect agriculture and future investment decisions.

“Farmers are also assessing the implications from the 2026 Federal Budget to tax, superannuation and working visas, with the latter potentially impacting seasonal labour availability.”

The survey showed that worry about drought eased from last quarter – cited by 21 per cent in this survey, compared with 36 per cent previously.

“Seasonal conditions have been reasonably average in the north west and north east, but drier in the Midlands, south east and along the east coast,” Mr Whatling said.

“In some areas it’s what farmers call a ‘green drought’ – it looks good from the road, but there’s not much substance underneath. 

“Fortunately, winter conditions were mild and the warmer soil temperatures moving into spring have supported expectations that things will start firing soon if we get some spring rain.”