Weather records tumble as Tasmania cops extremes

TASMANIA is in the midst of a record bout of warm weather with 10 consecutive days of temperatures above 15 degrees achieved or forecast - breaking the previous record of seven consecutive days.

Temperatures around Tasmania will continue to see maximums between 15 and 18 degrees despite rain squalls in some areas.

Most of Tasmania also experienced its highest May daytime temperatures on record.

Combined with recent rainfall across much of the state of up to 311mm (recorded at Gray), good rainfalls on Wednesday and two more rainfall events expected during the next week, the chance for continued pasture growth is high at a time when the winter frost has usually stopped it in its tracks.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Angus Hines said that the upcoming rain on Saturday, and then mid-next week, particularly in the north and west, will be welcome by farmers after a dry autumn.

However he said that overall there has been three years of below average rainfall that won’t be made up for quickly, a fact that’s reflected in soil moisture levels overall.

During May, areas with root-zone soil moisture deficits were unchanged despite some rain, with numbers still at 0–1mm, which is below to very much below average (in the lowest 10 percent of all Mays since 1911) for much of Tasmania.

Last month saw a tale of two extremes with rainfall being the lowest on record for May in western Tasmania, while above average in eastern Tasmania, according to the latest Drought Statement released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

When looking at the entire autumn rainfall, which was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10 percent of all autumns since 1900) for most of Tasmania, only the eastern areas were the exception where it had some relief after a long dry.

The long-range forecast for June to August shows rainfall is likely to continue to be below average for much of southern, central and eastern Australia, while daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the north. 

A forecast El Nino weather pattern is creeping closer, likely to begin in coming weeks, Mr Hines said.

“It’s still in a neutral phase at the moment but it’s getting close with our forecasters noticing changes starting to occur in atmospheric patterns and sea surface temperatures that are likely triggers.

“That will result in warmer and dryer conditions for the eastern states including Tasmania and the long range forecast is for a warm winter.”