Bendigo Bank provides agricultural outlook for Tasmania

Predicted dry weather over the next few months could hurt Tasmania’s agricultural industry, according to a new report by Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

Its mid-year 2026 outlook report indicates Tasmanian primary producers are looking at a mix of favourable market conditions and emerging weather risks heading into the second half of 2026.

“While timely rainfall in May and June significantly improved soil moisture levels, the dry three-month forecast poses considerable risk to producers,” the report said.

“This impending dry period, coupled with increased fertiliser costs, is expected to constrain further uplift in Tasmanian dairy production during the 2026/27 season, following a period of strong growth driven by favourable spring conditions and renewed corporate investment.”

The report said that Tasmania’s cattle market is expected to remain stable and lamb and mutton prices are also expected to stay near record levels.

“However, the dry outlook could trigger increased turn-off into spring, while squeezed processor margins have led to reduced kill shifts,” the report said.

“The wool industry enters the second half of 2026 with near historic high prices due to severe supply shortages, though persistent dry conditions and high input costs continue to pressure flock numbers, accelerating an ongoing shift away from traditional Merino flocks toward meat or dual-purpose breeds.”

The report said that international demand for Tasmanian stone fruit is expected to remain elevated.