October temperature records broken amid concerns over soil moisture levels

Seventeen Tasmanian weather stations had their highest October mean maximum temperature on record this year.

Meanwhile, the Tasmania Fire Service has warned of an earlier-than-usual increase in bushfire risk in some areas, and soil moisture levels across much of the state are low.

The following Tasmanian Bureau of Meteorology weather stations recorded their highest October temperatures:

• Hobart (Ellerslie Road)
• larapuna (Eddystone Point)
• Cape Sorell
• Scottsdale (West Minstone Road)
• Bicheno (Council Depot)
• Launceston (Ti Tree Bend)
• Strahan Aerodrome
• Dover
• Devonport Airport
• Friendly Beaches
• Cape Bruny (Cape Bruny)
• Low Head
• Swan Island
• St Helens Aerodrome
• Launceston Airport
• Maria Island (Point Lesueur)
• Grove (Research Station)

Ag Logic’s Head of Irrigation and Agricultural Monitoring, Marek Matuszek, said in southern Tasmania soil moisture was “pretty much near empty”.

“We did have some nice rainfall last week, but the problem was that it was almost too little, too late,” Mr Matuszek said.

“Most places around the state didn’t really get any water infiltration past 40 centimetres, so that was exhausted pretty quickly.”

Mr Matuszek’s data showed that pastures south of Longford struggled to retain moisture.

“Anywhere around Longford and north of it did have a winter refill.”

He said the area had a Goldilocks winter thanks to good rainfall.

The northwest was a little drier than usual, according to Ag Logic data, but it has seen some good rainfall events over the last few months.

“The northeast had its best winter and spring in four years, with some really good rains through there,” Mr Matuszek said.

“It was concentrated more so along the coast – Piper’s River up to Tomahawk and Rushy Lagoon – and there was a bit less as you come inland towards Scottsdale and Ringarooma.

“But again, it’s a similar story because all that grass growth is supercharged, and we’re tracking similar to or below where we were two years ago.”

While Flinders Island has had healthy rainfall, Ag Logic data suggested that King Island’s soil moisture and precipitation levels were tracking similar to the 2023/24 drought on the island.

Mr Matuszek said that while there had been good grass growth across most of the state, it had not translated to soil moisture levels.

“People visually see that everything’s great, but they don’t necessarily track how things are going below the ground.

“That can give us those early indications or precursors to where the season might go, and the forecast is showing that we’re not likely to get above-average rainfall.”

Tasmania is expected to experience an El Niño this summer, with the Climate Council predicting those conditions will persist in Australia until autumn 2027.

While Mr Matuszek said he was hopeful for more rainfall in the new year, he expected the rest of 2026 to be below average.

“That means farmers need to plan accordingly.
“Plan for different scenarios and see how your enterprise can fit within that, and think about what levers or decisions you should make earlier rather than later.”

TFS acting regional chief Kier Wilson said the northeast region, the Furneaux Group and the East Coast were the most at risk of an early bushfire season.

"Preparing for bushfire could save your life and the lives of those you love," he said.

"Bushfires are likely to occur in the Tasmanian landscape, but we can't predict exactly when or where they will occur.

“That's why now is the time to understand your risk, develop and practise your bushfire plan, prepare your property, and make sure you know where to get reliable information.

“The safest option is always to leave early, but that decision needs to be part of a plan for where you'll go, when you'll leave and what you'll take with you.”