Ruth Forrest speaks on budget failures, confidence vote, and what’s next

Despite mutual respect for Premier Jeremy Rockliff, Independent MLC Ruth Forrest said, “I feel sorry that he’s not taking responsibility…you have to own the decisions of your government.”

Tasmania is in uncharted political territory after the House of Assembly passed a no-confidence motion in Rockliff. In a detailed interview, Forrest unpacked the complex series of events leading to this unprecedented moment and what may lie ahead for the state.

Forrest joined the chorus of economic voices—including noted economist Saul Eslake—who have warned for years that Tasmania’s budget was on an unsustainable path. “These warnings have been issued for some time,” she said. “The government chose not to do anything about that.”

When the 2025–26 Budget was tabled last week, it confirmed the deteriorating fiscal position. Despite government claims of a “credible pathway to surplus,” Forrest insisted there was “no evidence of that” in the budget papers.

Opposition Leader Dean Winter seized the moment during his budget reply speech, announcing a no-confidence motion in the Premier. With support from the Greens and several independents, the motion passed—decided by the casting vote of Speaker Michelle O’Byrne, a Labor MHA.

In anticipation, Premier Rockliff had stated he would advise the Governor to call an early election if the motion passed. Forrest explained, however, that this advice is not binding. “Because he’s a premier without the confidence of the House, his advice is only to be taken as opinion. Constitutionally, the Governor will take her own advice.”

Now it falls to the Governor to decide whether to ask the Liberal Party to choose a new leader who can command confidence, invite Dean Winter to form government, or send Tasmania back to the polls.

Forrest expressed concern about rushing to another election just 14 months after the last. “To send people back to the polls… we could end up with the same situation—another hung parliament,” she warned.

The deeper issue, Forrest argues, is the government’s mishandling of public finances. “They’ve done nothing to turn it around despite warnings from their own Treasury,” she said, citing the failed Spirit of Tasmania berth in Devonport, ballooning Macquarie Point stadium costs, and the looming price tag of Marinus Link as examples of “monumental stuff-ups.”

She dismissed suggestions the government was being transparent: “They absolutely haven’t been honest... There is absolutely no evidence in the budget papers” for the claimed surplus trajectory.

Asked about potential leadership changes within the Liberal Party, Forrest was clear: replacing Rockliff with someone like Michael Ferguson or Eric Abetz would not automatically restore confidence. “It will require a different approach,” she said, and a new budget that addresses “very real problems.”

She also noted that any prospective Labor government would face the same scrutiny. “You’ve got to show how you’d turn it around and be tested on the floor of the House.”

Forrest is particularly alarmed at how an election or caretaker period would affect essential infrastructure decisions. The supply bill passed this week does not fund major projects like the Marinus Link, new Spirit berth, or stadium development. She warned this could delay or derail key initiatives.

“All the scrutiny committees stop. It’s terribly disruptive,” she said. “We could end up in a situation where emergency financial measures are needed.”

Forrest declined to speculate on what she would do if she were in the Governor’s position but said she’d be surprised if the Liberal Party wasn’t first asked to find a new leader. She urged politicians to “own the problems, take responsibility and act.”

With former Bass federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer recruited by Rockliff and names like Gavin Pearce who retired from federal politics in Braddon already floated as possible Liberal candidates in a snap election, Forrest believes parties will scramble to fill tickets. But she cautioned against further division. “People of Tasmania want to see leadership, honesty, and transparency. If we trash our democracy, we lose much more than votes.”

As the Governor considers her next step, Tasmania holds its breath.

Forrest’s full budget reply and opinion pieces are available in this week’s King Island Courier