TasFarmers Matters - State swims against the tide

Tasmania's rural sector is a jewel of our state’s economy, too often overlooked by politicians and policymakers.

The release of Rabobank’s Rural Confidence Survey this week highlights the resilience of our farmers in the face of uncertainty and challenging conditions.

Tasmanian farmers continue to rank among the most productive in Australia and remain the most optimistic about the sector’s future.

Encouringly, confidence in Tasmania is now tracking at some of the highest levels in the nation, supported by stronger livestock markets despite the ongoing challenge of rising input costs.

The real measure is that Tasmanian farmers hold the strongest national expectations for returns over the next 12 months.

Thirty per cent expect business conditions in the State to improve, a 10 per cent rise on the previous survey.

Rabobank also notes farmers are anticipating higher gross farm incomes and stronger cash flow as commodity prices rise. With a more stable political environment, farmers are in a stronger position to invest with greater certainty.

Confidence has lifted across most production segments, with the largest gains in dairy, beef, and sheep. Investment intentions are also the highest nationally, including expanding property holdings and upgrading infrastructure, particularly irrigation, in response to ongoing dry conditions.

We should not lose sight of the fact that 60 per cent of farmers remain cautious, seeing little real change in production conditions.

While seasonal conditions have improved in some areas, ongoing dry weather reinforces a sober outlook.

This is reflected in findings that 45 per cent of farmers are not actively looking to increase livestock numbers.

Nationally, sentiment across the wider agricultural sector has softened.

Concerns about government intervention and shifting overseas markets are echoed locally. In particular, Donald Trump’s stance on tariffs has weighed on beef producer confidence, though less so in Tasmania.

For farmers in South Australia and Victoria, dry conditions and high input costs remain their greatest concern.

As Rabobank’s group executive for Country Banking Australia noted: “SA and Victoria are still facing very challenging dry conditions, so there are mixed levels of confidence in the outlook there.”

As the peak body for Tasmanian farmers, we recognise the vital contribution farming makes to the state and work to ensure farmers are seen and their views are heard.

It’s clear that without our farmers, regional communities would lose much, both economically and socially.

We continue to fight against the creation of red and green tape, and for policy decisions to be made not through the lens of ideology, but in science.