Soil moisture levels a concern as lack of rain tipped for Tasmania over next three months

Parts of the state are still experiencing poor soil moisture levels, particularly in the south, despite decent rainfall in March.

“Rainfall totals during March have been close to average for most of Tasmania, but there are some areas of below average in the west, north-west and Flinders Island,” Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Jonathan Pollock said.

“Rainfall totals for January to March are tracking below average to very much below average for most of Tasmania, because of very much below average rainfall for most of the state apart from the east during January.

“January 2026 was the seventh-driest January on record for Tasmania, using data dating back to 1900.”

Mr Pollock said it was likely that there would be low rainfall.

“The latest three-month forecast for April to June shows below-average rainfall is likely for most of Tasmania.

“However, there is only a weak dry signal for parts of the south-west.

“The three-month forecast for May to July shows below-average rainfall is likely across Tasmania's north and parts of the east, but there is no strong push towards above or below average rainfall for parts of the south and west.

“Both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across Tasmania during April to June, and May to July.”

Marek Matuszek from Ag Logic said that current moisture levels would vary by soil type.

Duplex soil, the most widespread type in Tasmania, requires more rain to become suitable for planting.

Meanwhile, lighter soil types – more sandy ones – require less rain because they do not shrink, swell or crack.

Mr Matuszek said that we needed to “wait and see” whether it had been a good autumn break.

“We are pretty much similar to where we were this time last year.”

He said that soil moisture levels in the north west of the state were good, but declined in quality the further one went.

“We need nice, steady rainfall over the next few months.

“Consistent rainfall infiltrates the soil, and the soil pores can hold moisture.

“For an autumn break, there needs to be as much moisture as possible in that top 30 centimetres.”